WE ARE MAKING TECHNOLOGY COMPREHENSIBLE
We help organizations manage R&D, investment and technology acquisition by providing rapid, precise and accurate technology forecasts
We are building a software product to enable quantitative, rapid and cost-effective forecasts for any technology. Our research helps predict yearly performance improvement rates for nearly all definable technologies for the first time using the patent system network. Organizations use our insights to better understand and optimize their long range budget, capability development and investment priorities. Read more about our technology in the About section.
The basic search tool, built as a companion to our published research at MIT, is free to use for academic purposes (no signup required). You can type in any technology related keyword, and get the expected rate of improvement each year for the top 5 matching technologies.
Please click below to access the search portal
The cross-over scenario modeling tool is in a closed beta and is only available to paying customers. The tool uses probabilistic forecasting of technology improvement rates to predict when a challenger technology overtakes an incumbent. This information will help analysts identify when weak links and vulnerabilities in current and future systems and capabilities reliant on technology can be matched or surpassed by competitors.
Other tools under development-
Capability Spider Chart: Analyze national & global competitive/ adversarial landscape
Tech Synaptics Dashboard: Modular, comprehensive & real-time overview of critical capabilities-
technology, scientific breakthroughs & venture funding
IN THE PRESS
NEW RESEARCH BUSTS POPULAR MYTHS ABOUT INNOVATION
September 18, 2021
Some technologies improve much faster than others, and they do so at a more or less steady pace, regardless of individual breakthroughs and inventors. This should change how investors, policy makers and anyone choosing a career decides where to invest time and money.
Should the U.S. invest in a generation of new intercontinental ballistic missiles? What has really propelled decades of consistently rising computer performance? Is research into new forms of nuclear power a dead end? And should we credit Elon Musk with revolutionizing the automobile industry, or is he just riding the coattails of history?
These are the sorts of questions that researchers who study the history of innovation and what it says about the future say we can now answer—thanks, of course, to innovation. Using both previously untapped pools of data and new analytical methods, along with the usual tools of modern-day forecasting—namely, the predictive algorithms often described as “artificial intelligence”—they are taking a quantitative approach to examining how quickly technologies improve.
MIT BUILT A GOOGLE SEARCH TO SPOT THE MOST IMPORTANT TECH INNOVATIONS OF THE FUTURE
August 10, 2021
The phone in your pocket has 100,000 times the processing power of the Apollo 11 guidance computer that landed us on the moon. That’s thanks largely to the 1965 prediction now known as Moore’s Law, or the dependable principle that processor speeds will double every two years.
As a result, this $200,000 computer from the ’60s is vastly outperformed by the cheapest smartphone you can buy today. And whole industries can project the future of their business by depending on this ever-increasing computer power.
But what about everything else? Is there any way to predict the improvements coming to other technologies, ranging from displays, to electric motors, to farming equipment?
Now there is, thanks to researchers at MIT. They’ve built the equivalent of a Google search for innovation.
MIT RESEARCHERS USE AI TO PREDICT THE NEXT BIG THINGS IN TECH
August 5, 2021
MIT researchers have used AI to predict which technologies are rapidly improving — and which ones are overhyped.
In a new study, the team quantitatively assessed the future potential of 97% of the US patent system. The fastest-improving domains were predominantly software-related. Their research could give entrepreneurs, researchers, investors, and policy-makers clues about the future opportunities in tech.
“Our method provides predictions of performance improvement rates for nearly all definable technologies for the first time,” said lead author Anuraag Singh in a statement.
TNW, a Financial Times company
A COMPREHENSIVE STUDY OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
Aug 2, 2021
New research using patent data could help inform decision-makers by predicting which technologies are improving the fastest.
The societal impacts of technological change can be seen in many domains, from messenger RNA vaccines and automation to drones and climate change. The pace of that technological change can affect its impact, and how quickly a technology improves in performance can be an indicator of its future importance.
For decision-makers like investors, entrepreneurs, and policymakers, predicting which technologies are fast improving (and which are overhyped) can mean the difference between success and failure.
We always have a story to tell, so check our news section often and contact us if you need more information!