Who it's for

Built for the people who have to pick.

Corporate R&D and CVC Tech investors Government & defense

Where R&D compounds, and when to stop.

For CTOs, innovation leaders, corporate venture teams, and product strategists: estimated improvement rates to rank the R&D portfolio, benchmark internal progress against the outside world, scout the startups that could reshape your system, and decide when and where to build, invest, buy, partner or stop.

Semiconductors, quantum computing, energy, materials, chemicals, automotive, industrial robotics, aerospace. The method applies to any technology domain that can be defined.

Benchmark your portfolio

Portfolio optimization

Benchmark each internal program against external domain rates. Then accelerate, partner or re-scope with a number in hand.

Build, buy, or partner

Combine domain trajectory with patent, inventor, and assignee signal to decide which capability should be internal, acquired, or accessed.

Scouting deep tech

Which emerging approaches are on a slope that will matter to your roadmap, and which to partner with, license, or acquire before they are obvious.

An independent slope check under the technology thesis.

For venture capital, technology funds, corporate venture, private equity, and hedge funds: test the technology under a startup before there is revenue to test it against. Domains improving fast with little attention are where the opportunities sit. Domains improving slowly under heavy attention are where the losses sit.

Venture capital, growth equity, private equity, corporate venture, hedge funds, family offices, sovereign and pension funds, reinsurance. If there is a technology thesis under the position, it can be tested.

Bring us a thesis

Thesis validation

Is the underlying technology improving fast enough to support the proposed time horizon? Invest, monitor, wait, or avoid.

Startup diligence

When there is no revenue to model, the improvement rate is the evidence. We examine what a startup’s technical claim supports, what still needs to be shown, and whether its slope beats the incumbent’s.

Diligence that survives the committee

Forecasts you can put in front of a board, with the uncertainty stated and the evidence behind every number.

See the crossover before it becomes a surprise.

For defense planners and policymakers: long-range measurement of the technologies a mission depends on: which are about to cross over, which deserve research money, and which fast-improving challengers could surprise you. A mission is a set of technology bets, and each one can be measured.

Defense, space, national labs, energy security, standards bodies, multilateral agencies, policy research. Any mission that rests on a technology bet can be decomposed and measured.

Discuss a mission decomposition

Capability crossover forecasting

When could one technology overcome another? Improvement rates become time windows for strategic preparation.

Mission decomposition

Decompose requirements into quantifiable technology bets, each with an estimated rate and monitoring triggers.

Supply-chain foresight

Map the enabling domains under a capability and flag where the improvement, and the risk, sits.

Where TechNext fits

The decisions where a rate pays for itself.

Meaningful allocationYour organization allocates capital, R&D, procurement, policy, or risk capacity across technology options.

Concentrated downsideIf the technology, the architecture or the timing is wrong, it hurts.

Pre-commercial evidenceThe technology is too early for revenue or unit-cost data, so the current process leans on expert opinion, roadmaps, trend labels, or raw patent counts.

Also on the desk

M&A and bankingWe pressure-test the technology story under a deal and map the patents, inventors, and assignees that can surface strategic targets before they become consensus.

Pensions and sovereign allocatorsAn independent check on technical assumptions at the horizon the institution owns.

Insurance and emerging riskDated capability thresholds with uncertainty bounds, so emerging-risk underwriting has something to monitor and price.