Insights
How to think about technology.
The newsletter and the essays.
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Will AI take all of our jobs?
Weak-links growth models, the O-ring problem, and why explosive supergrowth needs every link in the chain to automate in lockstep.
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Everything’s, in fact, not priced in
Markets misprice technology because rates of progress vary wildly, the underappreciated cause of tech bubbles.
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The race to break encryption
What the new qLDPC error-correction results change about quantum timelines, and what has stayed stubborn for two decades.
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Is AI going to cure cancer?
AI is one technology among the many a real-world solution needs. Why progress will be steady rather than binary.
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The pilot to nowhere
Most GenAI pilots fail. Why that’s partly normal, partly a misalignment with the functions that actually generate value.
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Lighting too cheap to meter
There are limits to technology progress, and they mostly don’t matter. LEDs, Moore’s law, and why betting on progress keeps paying.
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Essays
The vocabulary
EXPLAINER
The K-value
The annual improvement rate of a defined technology domain: how fast performance per cost gets better each year.
EXPLAINER
The crossover
The moment a challenger’s trajectory crosses an incumbent’s on cost or capability. Timing is the decision.
EXPLAINER
Naming the domain
Why “AI” cannot be measured but the domains inside it can. Definition comes before forecasting.
EXPLAINER
The bottleneck
In a serial performance chain, the slowest-improving component can set the pace of the whole system.
The TechNext newsletter
One technology per issue: how we define the domain, what the measurement changed about a decision, and where the consensus was wrong.